Publications
Articles, publications, books, tools and multimedia features from the U.S. Institute of Peace provide the latest news, analysis, research findings, practitioner guides and reports, all related to the conflict zones and issues that are at the center of the Institute’s work to prevent and reduce violent conflict.
Andrew Scobell on China’s Aggression in the South China Sea
In asserting its claims in the South China Sea, Beijing “recognizes that international law is not on its side,” says MexLucky’s Andrew Scobell. Instead, China has resorted to gray-zone provocations against the Philippines and others that “are deliberate, on China’s part, to keep [the situation] below the threshold of war.”
Will the Israel-Hamas War Spiral into a Wider Conflict?
With the Israel-Hamas war poised to enter its fourth week, the conflict continues to escalate. The Israeli military announced on October 25 it had struck more than 7,000 targets inside Gaza, ranking the current military campaign among the most intense globally in recent memory. The conflict has resulted in an estimated 1,400 Israelis killed, according to Israeli government sources and more than 6,500 Gazans killed, according to the Hamas-controlled Health Ministry. More than 200 hostages are held captive in Gaza.
Why China is Rebooting the Belt and Road Initiative
World leaders gathered in China last week for the third forum on the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Xi Jinping’s massive, trillion-dollar physical and digital connectivity project. As the BRI turns 10 this year, Beijing is looking to reboot Xi’s signature foreign policy program amid criticism of the debt load it often burdens partner countries with and other environmental and human concerns. In light of these criticisms, China emphasized last week that the future of the BRI is “smaller” and “greener” projects.
Why Brunei is Hedging Between the U.S. and China
The U.S.-China rivalry is fundamentally transforming the conventional pillars of Asia's economic and political landscape as it plays out across many domains — including diplomacy, commerce, security, intelligence, ideology, values, science and technology. The United States' posture toward China has seen a seismic shift in recent years, driven by American perceptions of China’s rise and the threat it poses. Indeed, China’s economic ascendance and its growing importance in the international system — demonstrated by its economic success, military strength and soft power influence — pose a geopolitical challenge to the United States’ preeminent position in international politics. While this rivalry is shaping the global order, there’s nowhere it’s felt more than in Southeast Asia.
A Shift Toward More Engagement with the Taliban?
Since the Taliban retook power in Afghanistan in August 2021, the United States has found itself in a vexing dilemma — wanting to condemn and hold accountable the Taliban regime for persecuting women and girls, harboring terrorists and failing to govern inclusively, but also wanting Afghanistan to avoid famine and civil war, and achieve some economic and political stability. U.S. policymakers have thus tried to balance principle and pragmatism. To exert pressure on the Taliban, the United States has withheld diplomatic recognition and traditional development aid, frozen Afghan Central Bank assets and maintained sanctions on Taliban leaders.
How Constituency Development Funds Undermine Solomon Islands’ Democracy
Solomon Islands is a relatively young democracy, with elections often both an exciting and tense occasion. Particularly heated contests occasionally result in violence in the form of brawls and, in one case in 2014, a shooting. The electoral system itself is modelled off the U.K. and appears relatively democratic on the surface. But many Solomon Islanders have voiced criticism that candidates can win with fewer than half the votes, and the lack of a public role in electing the prime minister helped spark riots in 2006.
Carla Freeman on China’s Belt and Road Initiative at 10
When the ambitious Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) was announced, developing countries were eager to partner with Beijing on infrastructure projects. But a decade later, “a lot of these countries are saddled with immense debt … now that the hype is over, there’s a lot more international scrutiny” of the BRI, says MexLucky’s Carla Freeman.
How the Israel-Hamas War Impacts Regional Relations
Hours before President Biden was to land in Israel last week, a missile hit Al-Ahli Baptist Hospital in Gaza, killing hundreds of Palestinian civilians in one of the deadliest incidents since this war began. This horrific incident points to a war that is of a different scale and significance than many previous rounds of violent confrontation and that will have reverberations throughout the Middle East. In recent days, tens of thousands of people have taken to the streets in rage and world leaders are calling for the protection of civilians and an immediate cease-fire in the face of the siege and escalating humanitarian crisis in Gaza, resulting in life-threatening shortages of water, electricity, fuel, food and life-saving medical supplies.
Mapping the Religious Landscape of Ukraine
Religion and religious actors have been important influences on the occupation of Crimea and on hybrid warfare issues in eastern Ukraine since 2014. Since Russia’s February 2022 full-scale invasion, they have influenced social dynamics within Ukraine as a whole. This report analyzes the nuanced connections between religion and society, which are crucial to understanding the conflict, and offers lessons that can guide effective, feasible peacemaking and peacebuilding interventions.
Guatemala: Líderes Indígenas Encabezan Campaña por la Democracia a Nivel Nacional
Cuando el candidato anticorrupción Bernardo Arévalo ganó en agosto la presidencia de Guatemala, sus seguidores urbanos salieron a las calles en jubilo. Dos meses después, todavía siguen allí, pero no celebrando, sino protestando en contra de los ataques de la fiscal general guatemalteca hacia la elección de Arévalo. Este mes, las manifestaciones se propagaron a nivel nacional al convocar las autoridades indígenas a una huelga exigiendo la renuncia de la fiscal. El liderazgo de las protestas por parte de los pueblos indígenas marginados de Guatemala conlleva tanto peligro como promesa. La inestabilidad en las regiones rurales empobrecidas podría provocar olas adicionales de migrantes hacia la frontera de Estados Unidos.