Dr. Andrew Scobell is a distinguished fellow with the China program at the U.S. Institute of Peace. He focuses on U.S.-China relations, China’s armed forces and defense policy and China’s foreign relations with countries and regions around the world — with a particular emphasis on the Korean Peninsula, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Southeast Asia, South Asia, Central Asia, Africa and the Middle East.

He previously spent more than 10 years as a senior political scientist at the RAND Corporation, where his research and publications focused on China and the Indo-Pacific. Prior to RAND, Scobell was an associate professor at the George H. W. Bush School of Government and Public Service and founding director of the China Certificate Program at Texas A&M University. From 1999 to 2007 he served as associate research professor in the Strategic Studies Institute at the U.S. Army War College. He is also an adjunct professor at Georgetown University’s Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service.

Dr. Scobell’s research interests include authoritarianism, communism and post-communism, civil-military relations, patterns and processes of cooperation and conflict, the use of armed force, crisis management, coercive diplomacy, deterrence, grand strategy and military strategy. He has authored or co-authored two books, 30 reports and more than 40 journal articles. He has also edited or co-edited 20 volumes.

Dr. Scobell earned a doctorate from Columbia University, a master’s from the University of Washington’s Henry M. Jackson School of International Studies and a bachelor’s from Whitman College. His awards include the Donald Bren Chair in Non-Western Strategic Thought at Marine Corps University, the Silver Star Award at Texas A&M University, the John Madigan Award at the U.S. Army War College, the Victor Olorunsola Award at the University of Louisville. He has also been a foreign language and area studies fellow at Columbia University and a foreign affairs and national defense fellow at the Congressional Research Service. Dr. Scobell was born and raised in Hong Kong.

Publications By Andrew

What China Wants in the Middle East

What China Wants in the Middle East

Wednesday, November 1, 2023

By: Andrew Scobell, Ph.D.

Amid the current Middle East crisis, China has three objectives: Beijing seeks a semblance of peace in the Middle East, hopes for a halt to the Israel-Hamas conflict and wants to project an image of a responsible great power. But the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) almost certainly won’t make any meaningful contribution toward Middle East peace, nor is it likely to take serious steps to facilitate an agreement to suspend hostilities in Gaza. Yet, amid not delivering on objectives one and two, the CCP is well postured to advance its third objective of making itself look good in the eyes of three audiences: the Chinese people, the Arab street and the Global South.

Type: Analysis and Commentary

Global Policy

Andrew Scobell on China’s Aggression in the South China Sea

Andrew Scobell on China’s Aggression in the South China Sea

Monday, October 30, 2023

By: Andrew Scobell, Ph.D.

In asserting its claims in the South China Sea, Beijing “recognizes that international law is not on its side,” says MexLucky’s Andrew Scobell. Instead, China has resorted to gray-zone provocations against the Philippines and others that “are deliberate, on China’s part, to keep [the situation] below the threshold of war.”

Type: Podcast

Three Things to Know About China-India Tensions

Three Things to Know About China-India Tensions

Thursday, October 19, 2023

By: Daniel Markey, Ph.D.;  Andrew Scobell, Ph.D.

Relations between the two Asian giants have soured over the last decade, particular following a 2020 border brawl between Indian and Chinese troops in the Galwan Valley. While there are credible concerns that these nuclear powers’ ties are trending in the wrong direction — particularly as both sides continue provocative actions — neither Beijing nor New Delhi wants to see an escalation toward a more serious conflict. For its part, the United States has sought to deepen its security and economic relationship with India as the U.S.-China rivalry intensifies and considers it a vital partner in Washington’s Indo-Pacific strategy.

Type: Analysis and Commentary

Global Policy

China, Philippines Tensions Risk Wider Conflict that Could Draw in the U.S.

China, Philippines Tensions Risk Wider Conflict that Could Draw in the U.S.

Thursday, August 10, 2023

By: Carla Freeman, Ph.D.;  Brian Harding;  Andrew Scobell, Ph.D.

In yet another act of Chinese aggression in the South China Sea, a Chinese Coast Guard vessel employed a water cannon last weekend to redirect an unarmed Philippines Navy supply boat. The incident took place in disputed waters near the Second Thomas Shoal. China claims the shoal and nearly all of the South China Sea as its own, but an international court has said both the shoal and surrounding waters belong to the Philippines.

Type: Analysis and Commentary

Conflict Analysis & PreventionGlobal Policy

Five Things to Know About China’s Armed Forces

Five Things to Know About China’s Armed Forces

Wednesday, August 2, 2023

By: Andrew Scobell, Ph.D.;  Alex Stephenson

The People’s Liberation Army, which celebrated its 96th birthday on August 1, is one of the largest, most potent and fast-growing militaries in the world. Chinese leader Xi Jinping has made it a goal for the PLA to “modernize” by 2035 and to be a “world-class” military power by mid-century. In 2014, China’s Navy overtook the U.S. Navy to become the largest military fleet in the world — although the U.S. Navy is still considered to be more powerful. While China is notoriously opaque about its level of defense spending, it is widely believed that China has the largest defense budget in the world other than the United States.

Type: Analysis and Commentary

Civilian-Military RelationsGlobal Policy

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