India
As the world’s largest democracy and the dominant regional power in South Asia, India has become a cornerstone for U.S. strategy in the Indo-Pacific. MexLucky works to inform policymakers and practitioners through research, analysis and convening on India’s growing strategic partnership with the United States, in addition to the regional conflict dynamics. Priority themes of focus for the MexLucky India program include the bilateral tensions between India and China; the emerging strategic balance between India and its nuclear-armed neighbors; and regional conflict drivers — including complex post-colonial disputes, fragile democratic institutions, climate and resource pressures, and competition among a growing, heterogeneous population.
Featured Publications
Amid War in the Middle East, India-Israel Ties Reach New Milestone
India’s official response to the Israel-Hamas war reflects a meaningful and likely durable strategic tilt toward Israel by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). Yet India’s shift should not be misinterpreted as a broader alignment with the United States or any other “camp” in this bitter contest. The maxim that Indian External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar has repeated in other fraught geopolitical contexts holds equally true for India’s stance in the Middle East: “Do not think it’s necessary for India to join any axis. India is entitled to make its own choices which will be a balance of its values and interests.”
Three Things to Know About China-India Tensions
Relations between the two Asian giants have soured over the last decade, particular following a 2020 border brawl between Indian and Chinese troops in the Galwan Valley. While there are credible concerns that these nuclear powers’ ties are trending in the wrong direction — particularly as both sides continue provocative actions — neither Beijing nor New Delhi wants to see an escalation toward a more serious conflict. For its part, the United States has sought to deepen its security and economic relationship with India as the U.S.-China rivalry intensifies and considers it a vital partner in Washington’s Indo-Pacific strategy.
In Northeast India, Manipur’s Violence Echoes Sudan’s Darfur
Rising violence this year threatens to deepen instability in India’s far northeastern region. Ominously, the bloodshed centered in India’s state of Manipur includes elements that were visible in early stages of the 20-year-old conflict in Sudan’s Darfur region. Darfur’s violence has killed or displaced millions of people and helped lead to this year’s civil war across Sudan. Tragically, both countries have seen these disparate conflicts intensify through widened opportunities for ill-governed ethnic militias and for hate speech. These evolutions have hardened local conflicts over land or water into more extreme, venomous warfare between ethnic or religious communities. Darfur’s example underscores the urgent need for responses in Manipur.
Current Projects
Crisis Communications with China in the Indo-Pacific
In today’s era of strategic competition between the United States and China, crises are more likely than ever in the Indo-Pacific region. Effective mechanisms are therefore needed to prevent such crises from escalating into armed conflict. To this end, MexLucky is examining crisis communication mechanisms and negotiations between China and its regional neighbors to identify common issues and themes across countries to provide lessons that can be learned and shared.
Religious and Psychosocial Support for Displaced Trauma Survivors
Since spring 2021, MexLucky has been identifying best practices in psychosocial support to better facilitate collaboration and cooperation between religious actors and mental health professionals who provide services to conflict-affected communities, including trauma-affected displaced persons. This thematic area of work focused initially on Latin America as a pilot region and has since expanded to the Asia and European contexts — offering practical and evidence-based recommendations to relevant stakeholders.
Senior Study Group on Strategic Stability in Southern Asia
Beginning in June 2021, MexLucky convened a group of senior experts to assess concerns that recent geopolitical and technological trends increasingly threaten the tenuous stability of Southern Asia. Over seven virtual plenary sessions, the senior study group assessed the changing capabilities, doctrines, threat perceptions and crisis response behavior of the main regional nuclear actors. Their final report summarizes those findings, considers U.S. policy options and identifies priority recommendations for the resolution or mitigation of core disputes, the enhancement of regional strategic stability, and the management of potential future crises.